富爸爸：大家都悲观时就是最好的致富时机

Martin

　　这是罗伯特清崎2008年美国金融危机时间写的文章，正好适合中国现在的环境，中国经济增长放缓、股市还在底部徘徊、房产市场众说纷纭，正好可以参考一下,正好利用这个机会接受一下财商教育。

　　如果你真的想赚钱，现在时机到了。市场上到处都是坏消息，我们已进入一个大量制造悲观情绪的时代。当乐观主义者也变悲观，最好的投资时机便来到。

　　当疯子变成专家

　　记者 Hunter S. Thompson 时常说：「当群众变疯狂时，疯狂的人就变成专家。」这句话在投资的领域也适用。在每一个市场的高峰，疯子都变成了投资专家。2000年的时候，几百万人在网路公司的股票里变成专业的当冲客。共同基金创下最高的净资金流入纪录：当年是三千零九亿美金。

　　在早一点的文章里我提到当时我卖掉所有表现不好的房地产。我是用什么市场指标？我家附近一个超市的柜台小姐递给我她新的房地产仲介的名片，她不干柜台小姐，摇身一变成为房地产专家了。

　　当牛市变成熊市，这些专家们又退化成乐观主义者，希望并祈祷牛市能够回来好解救他们。可惜市场继续烂下去，这些乐观主义者又进一步退化成悲观主义者，辞掉他们的"专业工作"，回到原本的职业。而这时就是真正专业投资者重新进入市场的时候。这件事现在正在发生。

　　悲观主义 vs. 现实主义

　　1987 年，美股历经了史上最大崩跌。储蓄与借贷的市场机制根本无法运作。房地产整个完蛋，FED的抢救措施是成立"信保公司"(RTC, Resolution Trust Corporation) 而 RTC 就把金融资产从那些笨蛋手中转给比较精明的经营者去经营。

　　20年后，道琼工业指数和货运指数同时在 2007 年七月底达他们最后的高峰，从此以后坏消息不断传出。2007年八月出现一个家喻户晓的新字眼：次贷危机。十月我参加几个电视采访并被问到市场是否能反转危机然后继续往上。我的回答是：这次很糟糕，最坏的恐怕还没到呢。

　　很多乐观的电视主持人对我的说法很不满，问我为何这么悲观。我告诉他们，"悲观主义者和乐观主义者的差别是，悲观主义者才是现实主义者。然后我恰巧是个现实主义者"。

　　我们都知道，2008年初事情越变越糟。贝尔斯登(美最大投资银行)被并购，FED开始设法拯救投资银行家。二月的时候，很多当初乐观的电视或平面记者也变得悲观 - 然而如果报导记者们变得悲观，无知大众也会随之悲观。于是三月时，因为投资者疯狂逃离市场，共同基金的净流出达到四百五十亿美元。

　　如何在坏世道里生存

　　回到 1987 年，当借贷机制崩溃，投资大众抛出股票和不动产的部位，我和我的太太，金，正住在奥瑞冈的波特兰，很多人非常沮丧并逃离事实。第二年，我告诉金，"现在是你开始投资的时候了"。

　　1989年，金用 $45000 买了一个两房的房子。她实际拿出来的头款是 $5000，然后每个月可赚得的净现金流是 $25。到今天，她拥有超过 1400 个单位的房地产，而且，因为越来越多人由购屋改为租屋，她每年的净现金流有几十万美元。

　　实际上，1987 到 1995 年是一段困难的时机，既使对富人来说也不好过。我的朋友川普写过一本书：「东山再起的艺术」，提到他在这时候有上千亿的负债。但他并没有就此放弃，他努力战斗以求生存。我和他常聊到这段困苦日子对人格的训练是多么珍贵。

　　两年的警告

　　我相信我们正在经历这一波最惨的时候。我相信接下来还会有些余震，新闻也会在接下来的两年充满悲观的讯息，也许要持续到 2010 年的夏天。

　　不过往好处想，我们也有两年的时间可以慢慢研究，找到下一支飙股或绝佳的房地产标的。在下手买之前，我强烈建议你研究、读书、并实际去上些相关的课程。如果你的选择是股票，去上有关股票或选择权的课。如果你选房地产，就去上房地产相关课程。现在正是学习的时候，你不但会比一般人知道更多，也能在市场反转时占到一个好位置，更能遇到一些和你有相同心态的人。

　　你大概有两年的时间可以进入战斗位置。像这样的好机会可不是常常有，所以这是你最好的致富时机。

　　牛市用爬的，熊市用飞的

　　长期来说我是乐观的吗？绝对不是。我仍然相信美国是所有市场崩溃的源头，而且美国经济是建立在借贷上--货真价实的大量借贷。我想大部分婴儿潮诞生的人都会面临财务困难，油价也会攀上每桶 200 美元。通膨会继续，穷人和中产阶级都会很苦。

　　FED 已经向市场倒入一兆美元的流动性，这是为何我相信金价在每盎司 $1200 以下与银价在每盎司 ＄30 以下的时间不多了。金和银会在 2020 之前爬到顶峰并下跌，完成两个 20 年循环。我大概会在 2015 年左右卖掉银，把这些部位转到金、收益型不动产、石油和股票。

　　我们都知道牛市是像爬楼梯一样缓慢，但熊市却像从窗户跳下去一样快。我相信牛市还在爬楼梯，而真正最后的熊市还没跳出窗户呢。接下来的时间会证明我的想法。

　　When Pessimism Prevails, It's Time to Get Rich

　　Posted on Tuesday, July 22, 2008, 12:00AM

　　If you're serious about getting rich, now is the time. We've entered a period of mass-produced pessimism, when bad news is everywhere, and the best time to invest is when optimists become pessimists.

　　The Weird Turn Pro

　　Journalist Hunter S. Thompson used to say, "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." That's true in investing, too: At the height of every market boom, the weird turn into professional investors. In 2000, millions of people became professional day traders or investors in dotcom companies. Mutual funds had a record net inflow of $309 billion that year, too.

　　In an earlier column, I stated that it was time to sell all nonperforming real estate. My market indicator? A checkout girl at the local supermarket, who handed me her real estate agent card. She was quitting her job to become a real estate professional.

　　As a bull market turns into a bear market, the new pros turn into optimists, hoping and praying the bear market will become a bull and save them. But as the market remains bearish, the optimists become pessimists, quit the profession, and return to their day jobs. This is when the real professional investors re-enter the market. That's what's happening now.

　　Pessimism vs. Realism

　　In 1987, the United States experienced one of the biggest stock market crashes in history. The savings and loan industry was wiped out. Real estate crashed and a federal bailout entity known as the Resolution Trust Corporation, or the RTC, was formed. The RTC took from the financially foolish and gave to the financially smart.

　　Right on schedule 20 years later, Dow Industrials and Transports struck their last highs together in July 2007. Since then, nothing but bad news has emerged. In August 2007 a new word surfaced in the world's vocabulary: subprime. That October, I appeared on a number of television shows and was asked when the market would turn and head back up. My reply was, "This is a bad one. The worst is yet to come."

　　Many of the optimistic TV hosts got angry with me, asking me why I was so pessimistic. I told them, "The difference between an optimist and a pessimist is that a pessimist is a realist. I'm just being realistic."

　　As we all know, things only got worse in early 2008, with the demise of Bear Stearns and the Federal Reserve stepping in to save investment bankers. In February, many of those optimistic TV (and print) reporters became pessimists -- and when journalists become pessimists, the public follows. By March, mutual funds had a net outflow of $45 billion as investors fled the market.

　　Surviving the Bad Times

　　Back in 1987, as savings and loans closed and investors' stock and real estate portfolios were wiped out, my wife, Kim, and I were living in Portland, Ore. Many people were depressed and hiding from the truth. The following year, I said to Kim, "Now is the time for you to begin investing."

　　In 1989, she purchased a two-bedroom, one-bathroom house for $45,000, putting $5,000 down and earning $25 a month in positive cash flow. Today, she owns over 1,400 units and -- because more people are renting than buying -- she earns hundreds of thousands a year in positive cash flow.

　　The period from 1987 to 1995 was a rough one, even for the rich. In his book "The Art of the Comeback," my friend Donald Trump writes about being a billion dollars down at the time. Rather than give up, he kept on fighting to survive. He and I often talk about how that period was great for character development.

　　Two-Year Warning

　　I believe we're through the worst of the current bust. I know there will be more aftershocks, and the news will continue to be pessimistic for at least two more years, possibly until the summer of 2010.

　　But the upside to this is that it gives us at least two years to do our market research and find the next big stock or real estate bargain. Before buying, I strongly suggest you study, read books, and take courses on your asset of choice. If your choice is stocks, take a course on stocks or options. If it's real estate, take a course on real estate. Now is the time to learn; not only will you know more than the average person and be in a good position when the market turns, but you'll also meet people with a similar mindset.

　　You have about two years to get into position. Opportunities this big don't come along often, so this is your time to get rich.

　　Climbing Bulls, Flying Bears

　　Am I optimistic for the long-term? Absolutely not. I still believe we're due for the mother of all market crashes, and that the U.S. economy is running on borrowed time -- and I do mean borrowed. I think most baby boomers are in serious financial trouble, and that oil will climb above $200 a barrel. Inflation will also increase, causing more pain for the poor and middle class.

　　The Fed is flooding the market with nearly a trillion dollars of liquidity, which is why I believe gold under $1,200 an ounce and silver under $30 an ounce are bargains. Gold and silver should peak and decline before 2020, completing two 20-year cycles. My exit is to sell silver around 2015. I plan to hold onto gold, income-producing real estate, oil wells, and stocks.

　　Most of us know the bull climbs slowly up the stairs, but the bear jumps out the window. I believe the bull is still climbing the stairs, and the bear hasn't jumped yet. But rest assured that it will.

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