金砖国家：更富有，但并未更幸福

Martin

金砖国家正在变得更富有，这一点我们都已知晓。但金砖国家的公民们满意吗？

调查机构盖洛普(Gallup)发布的一份报告显示，在巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非，生活水平正在改善的感觉并不普遍。总体满意度提高的速度也未能跟上经济增长。

粗略看看盖洛普数据，就能看出，只有在巴西和中国，才有多数受访者（65%的巴西人，79%的中国人）认为自己的生活水平正在改善。在印度和南非，有这样感觉的受访者不及一半，在俄罗斯则只有不到四分之一（见下表）。

如果这一数字是逐年提高的，那么这就不是一个问题。但现实并非如此。在巴西和俄罗斯，2011年的满意率低于2010年，中国和印度则保持平稳，只有在南非，感到生活水平得到改善的受访者比例出现了显著上升。


生活水平正在改善 (%)
2009        2010        2011
巴西        61        72        65
中国        76        78        79
印度        32        44        44
南非        34        34        47
俄罗斯        17        31        26
数据来源：盖洛普

当然，认为生活水平正在改善的人数比例保持不变，并不能说明人们对当前的生活水平不满。而且在巴西、中国和印度，对生活水平感到满意的人数都超过了不满意的人数。但是，只有在中国，满意人群的比重有小幅提高，在其它国家，这个比重或者维持不变，或者有所下降。

对生活水平感到满意 (%)
2009        2010        2011
巴西        74        77        77
中国        60        66        72
印度        60        64        61
南非        42        45        45
俄罗斯        36        39        39
数据来源：盖洛普

这一数据与实际经济增长之间形成鲜明对比。印度的人均国内生产总值(GDP)在2011年比2009年约提高了450美元，但同一时间段里，只有1%的人口对生活水平更加满意。

人均国内生产总值，按当年价格计算（美元）
2009        2010        2011
巴西        8,360.33        10,816.49        12,916.90
中国        3,738.95        4,382.14        5,183.86
印度        1,077.40        1,370.80        1,527.35
俄罗斯        8,545.39        10,355.67        13,235.63
南非        5,741.08        7,274.42        8,342.16
数据来源：IMF

这是为什么呢？平均值可能产生很大的误导性，尤其是存在极端案例的情况下。那么，穷人和富人之间的差异如何？盖洛普将每个国家最贫穷的20%人口和最富有的20%人口的结果分成了两项

在每一个金砖国家中，富裕人群对自己的生活水平都更满意，这或许并不令人惊讶，但之间的差距并没有你想象的那么明显。差距最大的是印度2009年的数据，86%的富人对自己的生活水准表示满意，而穷人只有35%。但到了2011年，富人满意的比例下降到了74%，而穷人的比例则上升到了42%。

观察一下顶端五分之一人群以及底部五分之一人群，就会发现，对生活水平感到满意的人数的提高，与经济增长的模式并不一致。同样地，认为生活水准正在改善的人的比重增长速度也并不总是一致。

实际上，2010年最幸福的人，看上去似乎是巴西人。在那里，无论穷人还是富人都大体满意，满意比例之间的差距仅有5个百分点。

当然，财富和幸福感之间缺乏相关性，这在发达国家已经有了充分验证。不过对于新兴市场国家的预期一直是“增长、增长、再增长”。政策制定者面对的问题是：经济增长和幸福感能否兼得？这的确是个问题。

Emerging Economies Struggle to Improve Standard of Living

In Brazil, China majorities see their standard of living improving

by Krista Hoff

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa are all experiencing economic growth, but Gallup surveys show majorities in just three of the emerging-market economies -- Brazil, China, and India -- are satisfied with their standard of living. Only in China have perceptions improved since 2009. Further, only in Brazil and China do majorities believe their standard of living is getting better.

生活水平正在改善

While most countries' economies were mired in the global financial crisis, China and India realized near double-digit economic growth rates in 2009 and 2010. Countries with the lowest initial GDP per capita of the five countries -- China and India -- experienced the greatest growth. Countries with the highest initial GDP per capita -- Brazil, Russia, and South Africa -- experienced growth in 2010, after economic losses in 2009.

Yet, economic growth has not affected all equally. In Brazil, China, and India, where majorities are satisfied with their standard of living, the rich -- those in the top income quintile of these countries -- report higher satisfaction with their standard of living than the poor -- those in the bottom income quintile. In 2011, the gap between the rich and the poor was the largest in South Africa and the smallest in Russia. Between 2009 and 2011, each country experienced a decreasing gap in satisfaction with living standards -- with the exception of Brazil, where there were already small differences between the rich and poor. Brazilians experienced the most satisfaction with their standard of living across income levels, possibly reflecting the relative economic stability under Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's leadership.

对生活水平感到满意

Only in Brazil and China do majorities believe their standard of living is improving, and this is true for the rich and the poor. In India, Russia, and South Africa the rich and poor feel more pessimistic about their future prospects, and sentiment varies greatly by income level.

人均国内生产总值

Implications

It is uncertain how long high growth rates will last for emerging-market countries. To continue to spur high growth rates and allow gains across income levels, leaders must implement sustainable policies. The Brazilian government, for example, enacted social policies, including expanding the conditional cash transfer program Bolsa Familia throughout the 2000s. China implemented poverty reduction programs over the same time period in collaboration with the World Bank. Both these countries see high optimism about living standards and lower disparities across income levels.

For complete data sets or custom research from the more than 150 countries Gallup continually surveys, please contact [email protected] or call 202.715.3030.

Survey Methods

The results are based on face-to-face interviews with approximately 1,000 adults, aged 15 and older, in South Africa, Russia, and Brazil, and 3,500 adults in India in 2011. Results in China are based on face-to-face and telephone interviews with approximately 4,200 adults in 2011. In 2010, the results are based on face-to-face interviews with approximately 1,000 adults in South Africa and Brazil, 2,000 adults in Russia, and 6,000 adults in India. Results in China in 2010 are based on face-to-face and telephone interviews with approximately 4,200 adults. Results in these countries in 2009 are based on face-to-face interviews with approximately 1,000 adults in South Africa and Brazil, 2,000 adults in Russia, and 3,000 adults in India. Results in China in 2009 are based on face-to-face and telephone interviews with approximately 4,200 adults.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error in 2011 ranged from a low of ± 2.0 percentage points to a high of ±3.5 percentage points.

原文地址：http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001044055?page=1