美国《经济学家》中国股市已经达到“沸点”

Martin

　　前美联储主席格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan），在任时始终坚持认为，当泡沫实际爆裂之前就看出泡沫是极端困难的。他说这是决策者们永远不要刺破泡沫的原因之一。今天他似乎已经没有疑问，中国的股市是大大的起泡了。他最近宣布中国股票价格“明显地难以支持”，有“戏剧性收缩”的风险。

　　根据经济学家的“泡沫指南”，中国最近的股票价格上涨相对于历史上的其它巨人还是比较温和的。图表显示出中国过去五年的股价与二十世纪其它三大泡沫的对比：二十年代的华尔街，八十年代的日本和九十年代的纳斯达克。纳斯达克综指从1995年到2000年增长超过500%，日本日经指数从1984年到 1989年跳高了300%，上海A股指数显示过去五年的增益大约只有160%。

　　此外，中国A股目前平均市盈率比例约为45。在最高峰时期，1989年日经与2000年纳斯达克市盈率比例均大大超过100。这表明中国的股价在泡沫爆裂前还有进一步大幅攀升的可能——除非中国决策者们比格林斯潘勇敢，现在就采取大胆的行动来打击市场。

　　英文原文：

History's big bubbles
The boiling point

Jun 21st 2007 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
How does China's bubble compare with previous financial manias?



ALAN GREENSPAN, the former chairman of America's Federal Reserve, always insisted when in office that it was extremely hard to spot bubbles before they had actually burst. This, he said, is one reason why policymakers should never try to prick them. Today, however, he seems to have no doubts that China's stockmarket is bubbling over. He recently declared that Chinese share prices were “clearly unsustainable”, with a risk of a “dramatic contraction”.

It is curious that China's bubble seems so blindingly obvious to Mr Greenspan and so many other Americans who remained in denial about their own dotcom mania right to the end. For according to The Economist's “Bubble guide” (see chart), China's recent share-price boom is still relatively modest compared with the giants of history. The chart plots the performance of Chinese share prices over the past five years against the three great bubbles of the 20th century: Wall Street in the 1920s, Japan in the 1980s and America's NASDAQ in the 1990s. The NASDAQ composite index saw a gain of more than 500% from 1995 to early 2000. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped by 300% from 1984 to 1989. The Shanghai A-share index, having recovered most of its plunge in late May, shows a gain of about only 160% over the past five years.


Moreover, Chinese A-shares now have an average price-earnings (p/e) ratio of around 45. At their peaks, the average p/e ratio of the Nikkei 225 in 1989 and the NASDAQ at the start of 2000 were both well over 100. This suggests that Chinese share prices could have much further to climb before the bubble bursts—unless China's policymakers are braver than Mr Greenspan and take bolder action to dampen the market now.